08/01/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Monday Watchlist – August 1st

On Friday, $SPY ran up to test the 413-414 resistance zone but then rejected and closed below. Expect weakness if it cannot hold above that zone, and strength above. We are personally anticipating a profit-taking period before any further runs and holding that SPXS position mentioned on Friday. Futures are currently down -0.28%.

 

 

$CAT
Levels Above 198: 200, 202 (200DMA), 204 (100DMA), 206-210, 212, 217
Levels Below 198: 193 (50DMA), 190, 195 (9DMA), 180

Options Recommendations
Above 198 level: 205C 08/05 (471 Volume @ 2.58)
Below 198 level: 195P 08/05 (167 Volume @3.70)

Analysis
CAT IS forming a big-bodied bullish candlestick pattern, set to report its quarterly earnings on Tuesday (08/02) before the market open. On the daily timeframe, in the past few trading sessions, CAT was trading with increasing daily volume with multiple daily moving averages curling up, giving the bullish sentiment of the stock. CAT is set for a 200DMA (202.56) test if the psychological 200 can break and hold. Net premiums were on the rise, the last +$3.04M.

 

 

$TSLA
Levels Above 900: 909.3 (200DMA), 920, 930, 945, 965, 978, 985, 1000
Levels Below 900: 886, 880, 860, 850, 835 (100DMA), 820, 800

Options Recommendations
Above 900 level: 950C 08/05 (17.8K Volume @ 6.35) or 1000C 08/05 (28.1K Volume @ 1.97)
Below 886 or 900 rejection: 850P 08/05 (14.6K Volume @ 9.50) or 830P 08/05 (7K Volume @ 5.55)

Analysis
During last Friday’s trading sessions, TSLA went parabolic as it closed a strong big bodied bullish candle and is set for a 200DMA (909.38) test. The easier trade would be a big volume break above that 200DMA or backtest that 800 level near that 100DMA. The weekly timeframe also confirms that a huge wedge broke out two weeks back as well. TSLA is set to have its annual shareholder meeting on Thursday (08/04) and is set to vote on its 3:1 stock split which could be one factor behind this strong run.

 

 

$AMD
Levels Above 94: 95 (100DMA), 100, 102, 106, 110, 114 (200DMA), 118
Levels Below 94: 90, 88 (50DMA), 85, 81

Options Recommendations
Above 95 or B/T 94 level: 98C 08/05 (3.2K Volume @ 2.24)
Below 94 level: 90P 08/05 (7K Volume @ 1.84)

Analysis
AMD is set to report its quarterly earnings on Tuesday (08/02) after the market closes and the weekly options are pricing in a 7-point move. On the daily timeframe, AMD filled the small gap from the June gap down and hit a snag at the 100DMA (94.98) resistance but has the 50DMA (88.69) as a dynamic support. The key thing to watch for AMD is how they address their supply chain issue as INTC and QCOM dropped partially due to that and possibly how that chip bill can impact their future earnings. On the weekly timeframe, the daily MACD flipped green, and as long as AMD can close above that 94 levels this week, it can set up for a move back to 110 range in 1-2 weeks.

 

 

 

$LULU
Levels Above 308: 313 (100DMA), 315, 325, 330, 336
Levels Below 308: 300, 295, 287 (50DMA)

Options Recommendations
Above 313 or B/T 308 level: 315C 08/05 (57 Volume @ 4.30) or 330C 08/19 (83 Volume @ 3.95)
Below 308 level: 300P 08/05 (226 Volume @ 3.10)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, LULU has been trading in a tight wedge and the past three trading sessions. LULU closed a strong three white soldier’s pattern, however, lacked strong daily volume (potential for a false breakout if the volume is unable to pick up). On the weekly timeframe, MACD flipped green and the RSI looks charged up for a wedge break out.

 

 

 

***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***

• Unemployment Claims Data on Thursday (08/04) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Non-farm Payrolls for July on Friday (08/05) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST

 

 

 

07/28/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Thursday Watchlist – July 28th

After we’ve mentioned that bearish divergence was thinning and that GOOGL would help push up the markets, SPY managed to open up above that 390-393 zone and run all the way to the daily 1.618 level (402.8) and reject. With this run-up, a widening of the algo bearish divergence has occurred, potentially indicating that market participants are expecting a profit-taking period (We personally took profits on all of my GOOGL positions as planned) and rejection back below 400. With the bearish flow that has been going into AAPL and AMZN (earnings are tomorrow after hours), watch for impact on the markets with their collective weight of about $3.38T. Futures are currently down, -0.22% after hours.

 

 

$AMD
Levels Above 90: 94 (100DMA), 97, 102, 106
Levels Below 89 (50DMA): 88-87 85, 81

Options Recommendations
Above 90 level: 91C 07/29 (18.8K Volume @ 1.07)
Below 89 level: 87P 07/29 (16.6K Volume @ 0.63)

Analysis
The semiconductor sector got a boost in the past two weeks from the chip bill that was recently passed by the Senate. AMD is set to report its quarterly earnings on Tuesday (08/02) after the market closes. On the daily timeframe, AMD invalidated the head and shoulder pattern and managed to close above the 50DMA (88.90), which is a bullish sign. AMD has been basing in the 85-90 range and it could break out of it if we see a continuation this week for a possible 100DMA (95.23) test. Flow has been skewed to the put side, likely betting on a retest (and potential break) of the 50DMA.

 

 

 

$MSFT
Levels Above 266: 270, 279, 281, 286, 290
Levels Below 266: 263, 260 (50DMA), 255, 250

Options Recommendations
Above 270 or B/T 266 level: 270C 07/29 (44.7K Volume @ 2.33) or 275C 07/29 (16.7K Volume @ 0.60)
Below 266 level: 265P 07/29 (15.8K Volume @ 1.55)

Analysis
During Wednesday’s trading sessions, MSFT managed to hold its earnings gap up, which is a bullish sign. Despite a double miss on MSFT, they provided strong guidance which caused MSFT to move higher. On the daily timeframe, MSFT finally broke out of the month-long wedge and closed near the high of the day. The 270 level continues to be a strong resistance as it was the resistance during after hours for their earnings call and daily high during Wednesday trading sessions.

 

 

 

$SHOP
Levels Above 35: 36.2, 37, 39, 41, 45 (100DMA)
Levels Below 35: 33.5-33, 30

Options Recommendations
Above 37 or B/T 35 level: 38C 08/05 (1.1K Volume @ 0.75) or 36C 08/05 (1.9K Volume @ 1.50)
Below 35 level: 34P 08/05 (2.1K Volume @ 1.30)

Analysis
During Wednesday’s pre-market, SHOP received a positive reaction to their earnings despite all the negative news prior to that to soften the blow. The dip was bought up at open and it closed a big-bodied bullish candle with solid daily volume. Heavy demand has been shown to hold around the 30 levels. On the weekly timeframe, a rounded bottom is being formed.

 

 

 

$ETSY
Levels Above 100: 107, 113, 115, 121, 124, 129, 134
Levels Below 100: 91, 86, 82 (50DMA), 79, 76, 72

Options Recommendations
Above 107 or B/T 100 level: 109C 07/29 (4.5k Volume @ 1.66)
Below 100 level: 91P 07/29 (1.2K Volume @ 4.75)

Analysis
ETSY rose after hours following the reported earnings beating top and bottom lines. On the weekly timeframe, ETSY is also forming a rounded bottom, which is a great sign for a potential reversal with their earnings report.

 

 

 

****NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK****

• GDP Data Release on Thursday (07/28) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Unemployment claims data on Thursday (07/28) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Core PCE Price Index for June 2022 on Friday (07/29) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST

 

 

 

07/26/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Tuesday Watchlist – July 26th

On Monday, $SPY was rejected right at the 0.618 level (at 397.3) and well right back to test the 390-393 zone. Some decline after hours due to Walmart’s warnings on profit outlook. Algos and net premiums remain bearish, with more direction to come from earnings releases and economic events beginning Wednesday.

 

 

$TGT
Levels Above 150: 153, 156 (50DMA), 158, 162
Levels Below 150: 148, 146, 144, 141, 139

Options Recommendations
Above 150 level: 160C 07/29 (208 Volume @ 1.48)
Below 148 or 150 rejection: 146P 07/29 (208 Volume @ 0.21)

Analysis
TGT was down huge after hours due to WMT earnings reaction. This would bode unwell for TGT as they sell premium products and with WMT taking a huge hit to their revenue on cheaper products, this can set for a disastrous earnings potential for TGT.

 

 

 

$CAT
Levels Above 182: 183, 187.5, 191-192, 195 (50DMA), 198, 202 (50DMA)
Levels Below 179: 177, 175, 171

Options Recommendations
Above 182 level: 185C 07/29 (1.1K Volume @ 1.45)
Below 179 level: 175P 07/29 (344 Volume @ 0.86)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, CAT has been trading within an inside day pattern and was one of the few stocks that were showing relative strength in a choppy market. It’s currently trying to defend the trend-line set from January. On the 4hr time frame, CAT was forming an ascending triangle pattern with a breakout above 182 level if it manages to get enough volume on that break. The weekly timeframe also has CAT forming a rounded bottom as well which can set up for a move back to the 190s as long as 177 holds. Some bearish divergence on the algos.

 

 

 

$CRWD
Levels Above 182: 187, 194, 200 (200DMA), 208, 214
Levels Below 181: 178, 173, 168 (50DMA), 166, 158

Options Recommendations
Above 187 or B/T 182 level: 190C 07/29 (542 Volume @ 2.00)
Below 182 level: 175P 07/29 (176 Volume @ 2.18)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, CRWD continues to trade in a large bear flag but continues to hold on. It closed a long-legged doji on Monday which shows indecision and an inside week so far on the weekly timeframe. CRWD may continue to chop until either it gets below 173 or above 194 (double top so far on daily).

 

 

 

$AAPL
Levels Above 153: 156, 158 (200DMA), 160, 165
Levels Below 153: 150, 145, 143 (50DMA), 141, 138

Options Recommendations
Above 153 level: 155C 07/29 (31.2K Volume @ 2.71) or 160C 07/29 (33.3K Volume @ 0.92)
Below 150 level: 148P 07/29 (6.3K Volume @ 2.02) or 145P 07/29 (16K Volume @ 1.29)

Analysis
AAPL is set to report its quarterly earnings on Thursday (7/28) after the market closes and the weekly premiums are pricing in a 7-point move. On the daily timeframe, AAPL continues to hold above the 150 level (previous resistance turned support). Algos remain bearish and with net premiums on the decline, last -$47.88M.

 

 

 

***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***

• FOMC on Wednesday (07/27) at 11am PST/2pm EST with Jerome Powell speaking 30min afterwards.
• GDP Data Release on Thursday (07/28) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Unemployment claims data on Thursday (07/28) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Core PCE Price Index for June 2022 on Friday (07/29) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST

 

 

 

07/21/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Thursday Watchlist – July 21st

On Wednesday, $SPY managed to successfully defend the 390-393 support zone. Interestingly enough, algos still seem to show some bearish divergence with net premiums down, last -$142.12M. Futures are currently down -0.10% after hours.

 

 

$META
Levels Above 182: 184, 190, 194 (100DMA), 200, 207
Levels Below 182: 178 (50DMA), 169, 159

Options Recommendations
Above 184 or B/T 182 level: 185C 07/22 (20.9K Volume @ 2.78)
Below 182 level: 180P 07/22 (11.1K Volume @ 2.40)

Analysis
SNAP is set to report its quarterly earnings on Thursday (07/21) after the market closes and META would be that sympathy play for that ER without the crazy IV. On the daily timeframe, META is attempting to break out of the month-long falling wedge pattern and in the short term, break out of the flag consolidation. The weekly timeframe also confirms this attempt at breaking out of the falling wedge, so as long as META can close above the 182 level this week, it can set up for a bullish move next week. The current resistance zone it must hold is 181.8-183 (0.618 and 1.618 pocket). Some caution is advised, as net premiums are on the decline, last -$114.27M.

 

 

 

$SHOP
Levels Above 39: 40, 41, 47 (100DMA)
Levels Below 37: 34.8 (50DMA), 30

Options Recommendations
Above 39 level: 40C 07/22 (8.3K Volume @ 0.55) or 40C 08/19 (8.8K Volume @ 3.20)
Below 37 level: 36P 07/22 (3.5K Volume @ 0.35) or 35P 08/19 (622 Volume @ 2.30)

Analysis
During Wednesday’s trading sessions, SHOP was showing relative strength as evidenced by closing near the high of the day. It hit the 1.272 level (38.66) and was rejected. On the daily timeframe, SHOP broke out of the descending triangle pattern and closed a big-bodied bullish candlestick with a strong daily volume. The money was flowing into the 38C and 40C 8/19 expiration and is setting up for a big leg up as long as this breakout holds. 38.6

 

 

 

$DASH
Levels Above 78: 81.5, 84-85, 86, 90, 100-102
Levels Below 75: 73, 70, 68 (50DMA), 64

Options Recommendations
Above 78 level: 80C 07/22 (798 Volume @ 1.12)
Below 75 level: 73P 07/22 (157 Volume @ 0.74)

Analysis
During Wednesday’s trading sessions, DASH was showing relative strength and is attempting to break out of this month’s consolidation flag with the daily RSI primed for a break-out attempt. With the support of the 50DMA (68.64), it’s setting up to test the 100DMA (83.78) if DASH is able to break out of this consolidation.

 

 

 

$AMZN
Levels Above 124: 126, 130, 135, 143
Levels Below 120: 118, 116, 114, 112 (50DMA)

 

Options Recommendations
Above 124 level: 125C 07/22 (31.3K Volume @ 0.74) or 130C 07/29 (12.2K Volume @ 1.83)
Below 120 level: 119P 07/22 (11.5K Volume @ 0.51) or 118P 07/29 (2.6K Volume @ 2.79)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, AMZN continues to trade in a range between 101 to 130 level as the bulls continue to defend the 101 strong support from the previous head and shoulder pattern. On the weekly timeframe, it looks like AMZN has started to form some sort of a bottom with the weekly MACD flipping green but the only thing is lacking volume. AMZN was also showing relative strength right at open and this is evidenced by closing near the high of the day. The easier trade would be above 130 for calls and puts under 101.

 

 

 

***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***

• Euro Central Bank (ECB) bank interest announcement on Thursday (07/21) at 5:15 am PST/8:15 am EST
• Unemployment Claims data on Thursday (07/21) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Multiple Fed speakers this week

 

 

 

07/19/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Tuesday Watchlist – July 19th

On Monday, $SPY ran up to test that key 390 zones as expected but was quickly rejected, collapsing back to test the 380-383 support zone. Net premiums are on the decline, last -$103.83M, so market participants may be expecting a breakdown, securing profits after that 390 zones run up, or simply hedging. A hold of 380-383 remains bullish. Futures are currently up +0.20% after hours

 

$ES (Futures) – Pivot: 3869 | Levels Above: 3879, 3885, 3896 | Levels Below: 3852, 3832, 3821, 3812

 

 

 

$AAPL
Levels Above 145: 150, 153 (100DMA), 158 (200DMA)
Levels Below 145: 143 (50DMA), 141, 138, 136, 132

 

Options Recommendations
Above 150 or B/T 145 level: 150C 07/22 (74.7K Volume @ 0.98)
Below 145 level: 144P 07/22 (12K Volume @ 1.12) or 140P 07/29 (10.3K Volume @ 2.12)

Analysis
During Monday’s trading sessions, AAPL announced that they will also be slowing their hiring process which triggered a cascade of selling intraday into the end of the day. On the daily timeframe, AAPL attempted to break above the key 150 resistance but failed hard. The daily candle closed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern which can set up for a 50DMA (143.37) in the short term. AAPL is set to report their earnings on Thursday (07/28) after the market closes and with NFLX and TSLA earnings this week, it can highly influence if we break this range or not before FOMC next week.

 

 

 

$META
Levels Above 169: 172, 175 (Gap Fill), 178-179.4 (trend-line + 50DMA), 182
Levels Below 164 (9DMA): 159, 156, 151, 142

Options Recommendations
Above 169 level: 170C 07/22 (23K Volume @ 3.20)
Below 164 level: 160P 07/22 (11.2K Volume @ 1.83)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, META continues to trade in a range between 154 to 172 levels within an overall falling wedge pattern. META was showing relative strength at open but lost the majority of its gains near the end of the day despite it closing somewhat bullish. The easier trade would be above 172 level to fill the gap up towards 175. META has been trading in a coil and is setting up for a big explosive move, possibly depending on NFLX and TSLA earnings reports. Algos show some bearish divergence, so caution is advised.

 

 

 

$AMD
Levels Above 81: 85, 88 (50DMA), 90, 94, 97 (100DMA)
Levels Below 81: 79, 76, 72

Options Recommendations
Above 85 or B/T 81 level: 86C 07/22 (15.2K Volume @ 0.43) or 83C 07/22 (22.8K Volume @ 1.27)
Below 81 level: 80P 07/22 (15.7K Volume @ 1.35)

Analysis
The semiconductor sector was showing relative weakness after the AAPL news. On the daily timeframe, AMD back tested near the 85 levels (neckline of the head and shoulder pattern), and closed almost an inverted hammer near the low of the day. If we see a larger pullback in the market, AMD, it can set for a re-test of 72 levels which can form a double bottom.

 

 

 

$SNOW
Levels Above 142: 150, 154-155, 160, 164, 172-174
Levels Below 150: 142, 139 (50DMA), 137, 132, 126

Options Recommendations
Above 150 or B/T 142 level: 155C 07/22 (1.4K Volume @ 1.60)
Below 142 or 150 rejection: 140P 07/22 (913 Volume @ 2.15)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, SNOW has been trading in a tight range between 137 and 164 levels, but has found dynamic support off of the 50DMA (139.05). If SNOW can continue to hold above the 50DMA, it has a chance to test the 100DMA (174.88) if it can clear that 164 (hard resistance). So far, we have a double inside week on SNOW and may see chop until NFLX and or TSLA ER that has a high chance of moving the market.

 

 

 

***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***

• Unemployment Claims data on Thursday (07/21) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Multiple Fed speakers this week

 

 

 

 

 

07/18/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Monday Watchlist – July 17th

 

After the hourly trend-line resistance breakout we mentioned, $SPY ran up to test the 380-383 resistance zone and managed to stay above it (bullish sign). A hold above this zone can result in a 386.4 test, and that key 390 zone test. Futures are up +0.43%.

 

$NFLX

Levels Above 185 (50DMA): 191, 197, 200, 207, 226
Levels Below 185: 180, 177, 173, 170, 164

Options Recommendations
Above 191 or B/T 185 level: 200C 07/22 (3.1K Volume @ 9.30) or 220C 07/22 (1.3K Volume @ 4.15)
Below 185 level: 170P 07/22 (1.9K Volume @ 6.00) or 160P 07/22 (2.7K Volume @ 3.55)

Analysis
After we secured a solid +250% gain on NFLX’s drop, it came roaring back on Friday on a triangle breakout on this pre-ER run-up (NFLX is set to report its quarterly earnings on Tuesday (07/19) after the market closes with the weekly expiration pricing in a 28 point move in either direction). NFLX is finding support from the 50DMA (184.33) and is set up to test the 200 psychological resistance. There is unusual put activity and with net premiums on the decline, market participants may be expecting a disappointing earnings release. Expect a move towards the 160s if earnings disappoint. The past 4 earnings have resulted in drops (-3.3%, -2.2%, -21.8%, -35.1%), so they will need to somehow convince investors to stick around or this trend will continue.

 

 

 

$TSLA
Levels Above 714: 722, 730, 744, 752, 770, 786, 800
Levels Below 714: 700, 686, 675, 660, 644

Options Recommendations
Above 722 or B/T 714 level: 780C 07/22 (4.4K Volume @ 7.45) or 800C 07/22 (13.5K Volume @ 4.35)
Below 714 level: 700P 07/22 (13K Volume @ 19.60) or 650P 07/22 (6.9K Volume @ 6.40)

Analysis
TSLA is set to report its quarterly earnings on Wednesday (07/20) after the market closes with the weekly expiration pricing in a 58-point move in either direction. On the daily timeframe, TSLA attempted to break out of the wedge but met with the 50DMA (722.42) and the trend-line resistance. The flow near the end of the day last Friday was bearish with many big traders targeting the 700P this week’s expiration. Expect a drop back towards 675/660/644 if earnings disappoint.

 

 

 

$NVDA

Levels Above 155: 162, 168 (50DMA), 171, 178, 183
Levels Below 155: 145, 140

Options Recommendations
Above 162 or B/T 155 level: 160C 07/22 (20.4K Volume @ 3.25)
Below 155 level: 150P 07/22 (7.2K Volume @ 1.71)

 

Analysis
The semiconductor sector received a huge bump as there’s a senate vote for a multi-billion chip bill to address the chip supply chain on Tuesday (07/18) and we are seeing a big run-up from that announcement last week. On the daily timeframe, so far we see a fake breakdown of the 155 level which was the neckline of the bearish head and shoulder pattern. If NVDA can hold above this 155, it can set up for that 50DMA (168.93) test in the short term.

 

 

 

$AMZN

Levels Above 114: 116, 118, 120, 124
Levels Below 112 (50DMA): 109, 104, 101

Options Recommendations
Above 114 level: 115C 07/22 (57.2K Volume @ 1.74)
Below 112 level: 110P 07/22 (14.4K Volume @ 1.15)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, AMZN formed a higher low after bears failed to break that 101 level of strong support. Currently, AMZN is finding some support from the 50DMA (112.17) and some bullish flow into this week for the 114, 115, and 116 OTM call options expiring this week. Some caution is advised, as net premiums are on the decline.

 

 

 

***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***

 

• Unemployment Claims data on Thursday (07/21) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Multiple Fed speakers this week

 

 

07/14/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Watchlist for 07/14/2022

 

On Wednesday, $SPY fell short of reclaiming the 386-387 range, successfully defended the 374-373 support, rejected the 380-383 range, and continues to look bearish under that as We’ve mentioned. An additional level we will be looking at tomorrow will be 378.3 (0.382 level and where trend-line resistance will meet). Failure to hold that will likely result in 377, and another 374-373 zone test. The bearish divergence we’ve been talking about lately is not as prominent after these drops but still exists. Before the close, We mentioned that the MOC imbalance was -$350M (sell). Futures proceeded to fall -0.87% after hours, but have recovered a bit and are currently down -0.51%.

 

 

$ES (Futures) – Pivot: 3796 | Levels Above: 3806, 3832, 3865, 3885 | Levels Below: 3706, 3643

 

 

$SQ

Levels Above 64: 66, 69, 73, 76 (50DMA)
Levels Below 64: 62, 60, 56

Options Recommendations
Above 64 level: 65C 07/15 (2.5K Volume @ 1.43) or 66C 07/22 (7.8K Volume @ 2.62)
Below 64 level: 62P 07/15 (1.2K Volume @ 0.98)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, SQ continues to hold onto the bearish pennant. There was some flow into the 66C 7/22, however, the net premiums have gone down, last -$7.58M. Double inside bars on the weekly, indicating that SQ is likely coiling for a big move depending on the breakout of the pennant.

 

 

 

$LMT
Levels Above 410: 415, 419, 426, 435
Levels Below 404: 394, 392.3 (200DMA)

Options Recommendations
Above 410 level: 415C 07/15 (86 Volume @ 1.50)
Below 404 level: 400P 07/15 (79 Volume @ 1.60)

Analysis
During Wednesday’s trading sessions, LMT was showing relative weakness compared to the overall market as evidenced by closing near the low of the day. On the daily timeframe, LMT closed a bearish inverted hammer and can set for a potential test at the 395 level which can act as a support and form a double bottom if held. On the weekly timeframe, caution to bear if a bullish flag plays out.

 

 

 

$TTD

Levels Above 43: 46, 48 (50DMA), 51, 54-56
Levels Below 43: 40, 36, 32, 30, 26

Options Recommendations
Above 46 or B/T 43 level: 46C 07/15 (1.7K Volume @ 0.60)
Below 43 level: 42P 07/15 (696 Volume @ 0.53)

Analysis
During Wednesday’s trading sessions, TTD was showing relative strength until NFLX released news of using MSFT as their ads partner which caused TTD to lose the majority of its gains near the end of the day. On the daily timeframe, TTD has been trading within a descending triangle pattern with a breakdown if TTD fails the 40-level strong support. If TTD loses that 40-level support, it will set for another leg lower.

 

 

 

****NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK****

• Producer Price Index for June 2022 on Thursday (07/14) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Unemployment Claims Data on Thursday (07/14) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• OpEx on Friday (07/15)

 

 

 

07/13/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Wednesday Watchlist – July 13th

 

On Tuesday, $SPY tested that double top (386-387 range We mentioned the day before) and rejected, continuing the bleed-off to test that 380-383 support range. If SPY can’t hold above this zone, the old 374-373 support zone remains below. All eyes are on June core CPI tomorrow: the market is expecting 8.8%. Algos continues to show bearish divergence, and net premiums have fallen further, last -$125.45M. These could be hedges or traders expecting this 380-383 level not to hold.

 

 

$AMD

Levels Above 76: 79, 81, 85, 88, 90 (50DMA)
Levels Below 74, 72, 70, 65

Options Recommendations
Above 79 or B/T 76 level: 78C 07/15 (13.5K Volume @ 1.18)
Below 76 level: 75P 07/15 (22.3K Volume @ 1.31)

Analysis
Like NVDA, AMD broke down the head and shoulder pattern at the neckline of 85 and is currently setting itself for a potential 72-level re-test if the market reacts negatively to Wednesday’s CPI data. The weekly also has an inside week like many other stocks, so CPI will determine how the market will move for the rest of the week. Net premiums remain down, last -$5.36M. A drop in the sector would also likely result in NVDA bleeding down to test the 140 area.

 

 

$HD

Levels Above 285: 289 (50DMA), 292, 300, 309, 315
Levels Below 289: 285, 281, 278, 274, 271, 264, 260

Options Recommendations
Above 289 or B/T 285 level: 290C 07/15 (770 Volume @ 1.95) or 300C 07/22 (206 Volume @ 1.19)
Below 285 or B/T 289 level: 280P 07/15 (300 Volume @ 2.25)

Analysis
HD was showing relative strength at the open but quickly lost all of its gains intraday. When strong stocks pre-market flip bearish intraday, it tells you weakness in the stock. On the daily timeframe, HD rejected the 292 daily resistance with the 50DMA (289.05) now acting as a dynamic resistance level as well. If HD is unable to reclaim above the 50DMA or 292, we can start to see a pullback down to 278 again. Flow is mixed, algo shows some bearish divergence, and net premiums remain down, last -$3.82M.

 

 

 

$TGT

Levels Above 144: 146, 150, 153, 156, 158
Levels Below 144: 141, 139, 137

Options Recommendations
Above 146 or B/T 144 level: 146C 07/15 (357 Volume @ 1.57) or 150C 07/22 (207 Volume @ 1.43)
Below 144 level: 140P 07/15 (587 Volume @ 0.80)

Analysis
Like HD, TGT was showing relative strength at open but quickly lost the majority of its gains intraday throughout the day. Flow into the 140P 7/29, along with put flow into IWM for the 7/15 and 8/19 expiration that came in on Tuesday ahead of CPI data pre-market. On the daily timeframe, TGT was trading in a bearish downward channel, TGT recently attempted to break out of that channel last Friday but currently is struggling to hold above that break out of 144 level. If CPI comes out more than expected, we can see a much larger drop in the overall market.

 

 

 

$GOOGL

Levels Above 2300: 2315, 2342, 2360, 2375
Levels Below 2280: 2265 (50DMA), 2259-2254, 2230, 2317, 2200, 2188

Options Recommendations
Above 2300 level: 2400C 07/15 (4.1K Volume @ 6.00)
Below 2380 level: 2200P 07/15 (2.4K Volume @ 11.50)

Analysis
Mixed flow heading into CPI data and GOOGL’s 20:1 stock split on Friday (07/15). This is key to watch as depending on how the market reacts to CPI data if we get a big drop but bounce at key levels. On the daily timeframe, GOOGL giving up 2300 which has acted as support for this the last week. GOOGL currently is still holding above the flag break out so this pullback is healthy as long as GOOGL doesn’t close below the 50DMA (2262.77) on the daily timeframe. The weekly is still developing an inside week as well, so lots of indecision. Net premiums remain up, last +$31.65M.

 

 

 

***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***

• Core CPI for June 2022 on Wednesday (07/13) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Producer Price Index for June 2022 on Thursday (07/14) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Unemployment Claims Data on Thursday (07/14) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• OpEx on Friday (07/15)

 

 

 

 

07/05/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Watchlist for Tuesday, 07/05/2022

 

On Friday, $SPY had a solid 373-374 support test and hold, to begin the 380-383 resistance test. If it can break and hold that range, look for a test of 385.4 (0.382 level), and 390-393 above that. Before the close, We mentioned that SPY puts were being sold, and the MOC imbalance was +$1.4B (buy), futures are up 0.34% since.

 

 

$ES (Futures) – Pivot: 3809 | Levels Above: 3830, 3840, 3872, 3900 | Levels Below: 3793, 3776, 3743, 3711

 

 

$BABA

Levels Above 114: 119, 121 (200DMA), 123, 127, 130
Levels Below 114: 110, 106, 102-100

Options Recommendations
Above 119 or B/T 114 level: 120C 07/08 (4.8K Volume @ 1.95)
Below 114 level: 110P 07/08 (1.1K Volume @ 1.29)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, BABA continues to ride those daily moving averages as dynamic support after two rejections near the 200DMA (121.63). The flow is still fairly bullish with money flowing into the 115C 7/8 during Friday. Based on the weekly timeframe, BABA broke out of the month’s long downward channel and had a backtest to validate that breakout for a potential reversal from lows. Net premiums remain up, last +$24.61M.

 

 

 

$AMZN

Levels Above 109: 112 (0.382 level), 114, 116 (50DMA), 118
Levels Below 109: 104, 101 (2-yr low), 98, 94, 91, 84, 81 (covid low)

Options Recommendations
Above 109 level: 110C 07/08 (27.4K Volume @ 2.15)
Below 104 level or 109 Rejection: 108P 07/08 (8.5K Volume @ 1.73)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, bulls are still trying to make sure AMZN does not break the 101 level which is the neckline for the head and shoulder pattern (bearish reversal). 107C 7/8 were being bought towards the end of the day, but net premiums remain down, last -$134.59M.

 

 

 

$TSM

Levels Above 78: 79, 80 (gap-fill), 83 (gap-fill)
Levels Below 75: 72, 69 (these will all be 2-year lows)

Options Recommendations
Above 78 level: 80C 07/08 (1.2K Volume @ 0.43)
Below 75 level: 74P 07/08 (2K Volume @ 0.65) or 70P 10/21 (955 Volume @ 3.90)

Analysis
On the daily timeframe, TSM gapped down twice after failing the 85 key support. On the 1-hour timeframe, TSM has been forming a bear flag, so keep an eye out for a potential breakdown. Unusual activity on the 80P 10/21, signaling more potential for bearish bets. Net premiums last -$5.56M.

 

 

 

$AAPL

Levels Above 138: 141, 145 (50DMA), 150
Levels Below 138: 135, 134.6 132

Options Recommendations
Above 141 or B/T 138 level: 140C 07/08 (28.3K Volume @ 1.71)
Below 138 level: 136P 07/08 (11.5K Volume @ 1.21)

Analysis
Despite the green day on Friday, 135P 07/22 were being bought up, and net premiums remain down, last -$47.89M. On the daily timeframe, AAPL is approaching some trend-line resistance, so traders may be betting on an impending rejection.

 

 

****NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK****

 

• FOMC minutes on Wednesday (07/06) at 11 am PST/2 pm EST
• Unemployment Claims Data on Thursday (07/07) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Non-farm payroll for June 2022 on Friday (07/08) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST

 

 

 

 

06/29/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Watchlist for Wednesday, 06/29/2022

 

On Tuesday, $SPY failed to hold above the 390 resistance and broke below the 383 support as well as the daily trend-line support. 378.83 is the gap below that has yet to be filled from last week. Again, the flow remains bearish. Futures are currently up +0.26% after hours.

 

$OXY

Levels Above 62: 65, 70, 74
Levels Below 60: 56-64, 51

Contract Suggestion
Above 62 level: 63C 07/01 (5.6K Volume @ 1.01) or 70C 08/19 (5K Volume @ 3.10)
Below 60 level: 57.5P 07/15 (734 Volume @ 1.64)

Analysis
The energy sector was one of the few that closed green in a sea of red during Tuesday’s trading sessions and was showing relative strength. Currently, OXY is hitting a key resistance at the 50DMA (62.06) and OXY needs to break above to break out and re-test the 70 to 74 range. With the start of summer traveling, demand may stay up. OXY has been receiving bullish flow with some 70C 8/19 being bought up during Tuesday’s trading sessions. Net premiums remain to be on the rise.

 

 

$AAPL

Levels Above 138: 141, 145, 148 (50DMA), 150
Levels Below 136: 132, 130, 128

Contract Suggestion
Above 138 level: 140C 07/08 (3.8K Volume @ 1.99)
Below 136 level: 134P 07/08 (3.8K Volume @ 1.80)

Analysis
AAPL sold off intraday when the courts rejected AAPL claims for QCOM chips and sold off heavily with the market. Vice Versa, QCOM received a pop from that decision but lost the majority of its gains from the market sell-off. AAPL was showing relative weakness compared to the overall market as evidenced by its close near the low of the day. If AAPL is able to close above 141 on the weekly, it can form a potential dark cloud cover and can set up for a leg lower into next week.

 

 

$TSLA

Levels Above 700: 714, 730, 744, 752, 770, 786, 800
Levels Below 700: 686, 675, 660, 644, 630

Contract Suggestion
Above 700 level: 730C 07/01 (18.3K Volume @ 7.45) or 740C 07/01 (20.9K Volume @ 5.35)
Below 686 or 700 Rejection: 680P 07/01 (17.7K Volume @ 12.05) or 650P 07/01 (18.5K Volume @ 4.95)

Analysis
On the weekly timeframe, like AAPL, TSLA is forming a dark cloud cover pattern if it is unable to close above 744 level resistance. Towards the end of the day, there were multiple ITM 700P weekly flows that were bought up for a larger potential sell-off if TSLA remains below the 700 level (strong support). So far on the daily, TSLA closed a dark cloud cover and is set up to re-test 660 level (Strong support), if 700 breaks.

 

 

$AMD

Levels Above 81: 85, 88
Levels Below 81: 79, 76, 72, 70

Contract Suggestion
Above 81 level: 83C 07/01 (7.9K Volume @ 1.10)
Below 79 or 81 rejection: 80P 07/01 (19.3K Volume @ 1.63)

Analysis
The semiconductor sector was one of the hardest-hit sectors other than QCOM due to the news. On the daily timeframe, AMD is right back at the critical support of 80 levels which has bounced there three times. If AMD takes out the 79 level, which was the LOW on June 17th, it can set up for a larger leg lower as it would form a lower low on the daily timeframe. Currently, the flow is hitting the 83P weeklies and 81P next week that came in near the end of the day.

 

 

***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***

 

• GDP Data on Wednesday (06/29) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Unemployment Claims Data on Thursday (06/30) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
• Quarterly expiration on Thursday (6/30)