07/28/2022 Watchlist Chart

07/28/2022 Watchlist Chart

 

Thursday Watchlist – July 28th

After we’ve mentioned that bearish divergence was thinning and that GOOGL would help push up the markets, SPY managed to open up above that 390-393 zone and run all the way to the daily 1.618 level (402.8) and reject. With this run-up, a widening of the algo bearish divergence has occurred, potentially indicating that market participants are expecting a profit-taking period (We personally took profits on all of my GOOGL positions as planned) and rejection back below 400. With the bearish flow that has been going into AAPL and AMZN (earnings are tomorrow after hours), watch for impact on the markets with their collective weight of about $3.38T. Futures are currently down, -0.22% after hours.

 

 

$AMD
Levels Above 90: 94 (100DMA), 97, 102, 106
Levels Below 89 (50DMA): 88-87 85, 81

Options Recommendations
Above 90 level: 91C 07/29 (18.8K Volume @ 1.07)
Below 89 level: 87P 07/29 (16.6K Volume @ 0.63)

Analysis
The semiconductor sector got a boost in the past two weeks from the chip bill that was recently passed by the Senate. AMD is set to report its quarterly earnings on Tuesday (08/02) after the market closes. On the daily timeframe, AMD invalidated the head and shoulder pattern and managed to close above the 50DMA (88.90), which is a bullish sign. AMD has been basing in the 85-90 range and it could break out of it if we see a continuation this week for a possible 100DMA (95.23) test. Flow has been skewed to the put side, likely betting on a retest (and potential break) of the 50DMA.

 

 

 

$MSFT
Levels Above 266: 270, 279, 281, 286, 290
Levels Below 266: 263, 260 (50DMA), 255, 250

Options Recommendations
Above 270 or B/T 266 level: 270C 07/29 (44.7K Volume @ 2.33) or 275C 07/29 (16.7K Volume @ 0.60)
Below 266 level: 265P 07/29 (15.8K Volume @ 1.55)

Analysis
During Wednesday’s trading sessions, MSFT managed to hold its earnings gap up, which is a bullish sign. Despite a double miss on MSFT, they provided strong guidance which caused MSFT to move higher. On the daily timeframe, MSFT finally broke out of the month-long wedge and closed near the high of the day. The 270 level continues to be a strong resistance as it was the resistance during after hours for their earnings call and daily high during Wednesday trading sessions.

 

 

 

$SHOP
Levels Above 35: 36.2, 37, 39, 41, 45 (100DMA)
Levels Below 35: 33.5-33, 30

Options Recommendations
Above 37 or B/T 35 level: 38C 08/05 (1.1K Volume @ 0.75) or 36C 08/05 (1.9K Volume @ 1.50)
Below 35 level: 34P 08/05 (2.1K Volume @ 1.30)

Analysis
During Wednesday’s pre-market, SHOP received a positive reaction to their earnings despite all the negative news prior to that to soften the blow. The dip was bought up at open and it closed a big-bodied bullish candle with solid daily volume. Heavy demand has been shown to hold around the 30 levels. On the weekly timeframe, a rounded bottom is being formed.

 

 

 

$ETSY
Levels Above 100: 107, 113, 115, 121, 124, 129, 134
Levels Below 100: 91, 86, 82 (50DMA), 79, 76, 72

Options Recommendations
Above 107 or B/T 100 level: 109C 07/29 (4.5k Volume @ 1.66)
Below 100 level: 91P 07/29 (1.2K Volume @ 4.75)

Analysis
ETSY rose after hours following the reported earnings beating top and bottom lines. On the weekly timeframe, ETSY is also forming a rounded bottom, which is a great sign for a potential reversal with their earnings report.

 

 

 

****NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK****

  • GDP Data Release on Thursday (07/28) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
  • Unemployment claims data on Thursday (07/28) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
  • Core PCE Price Index for June 2022 on Friday (07/29) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST

 

 

 

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