07/18/2022 Watchlist Chart
Monday Watchlist – July 17th
After the hourly trend-line resistance breakout we mentioned, $SPY ran up to test the 380-383 resistance zone and managed to stay above it (bullish sign). A hold above this zone can result in a 386.4 test, and that key 390 zone test. Futures are up +0.43%.
$NFLX
Levels Above 185 (50DMA): 191, 197, 200, 207, 226
Levels Below 185: 180, 177, 173, 170, 164
Options Recommendations
Above 191 or B/T 185 level: 200C 07/22 (3.1K Volume @ 9.30) or 220C 07/22 (1.3K Volume @ 4.15)
Below 185 level: 170P 07/22 (1.9K Volume @ 6.00) or 160P 07/22 (2.7K Volume @ 3.55)
Analysis
After we secured a solid +250% gain on NFLX’s drop, it came roaring back on Friday on a triangle breakout on this pre-ER run-up (NFLX is set to report its quarterly earnings on Tuesday (07/19) after the market closes with the weekly expiration pricing in a 28 point move in either direction). NFLX is finding support from the 50DMA (184.33) and is set up to test the 200 psychological resistance. There is unusual put activity and with net premiums on the decline, market participants may be expecting a disappointing earnings release. Expect a move towards the 160s if earnings disappoint. The past 4 earnings have resulted in drops (-3.3%, -2.2%, -21.8%, -35.1%), so they will need to somehow convince investors to stick around or this trend will continue.
$TSLA
Levels Above 714: 722, 730, 744, 752, 770, 786, 800
Levels Below 714: 700, 686, 675, 660, 644
Options Recommendations
Above 722 or B/T 714 level: 780C 07/22 (4.4K Volume @ 7.45) or 800C 07/22 (13.5K Volume @ 4.35)
Below 714 level: 700P 07/22 (13K Volume @ 19.60) or 650P 07/22 (6.9K Volume @ 6.40)
Analysis
TSLA is set to report its quarterly earnings on Wednesday (07/20) after the market closes with the weekly expiration pricing in a 58-point move in either direction. On the daily timeframe, TSLA attempted to break out of the wedge but met with the 50DMA (722.42) and the trend-line resistance. The flow near the end of the day last Friday was bearish with many big traders targeting the 700P this week’s expiration. Expect a drop back towards 675/660/644 if earnings disappoint.
$NVDA
Levels Above 155: 162, 168 (50DMA), 171, 178, 183
Levels Below 155: 145, 140
Options Recommendations
Above 162 or B/T 155 level: 160C 07/22 (20.4K Volume @ 3.25)
Below 155 level: 150P 07/22 (7.2K Volume @ 1.71)
Analysis
The semiconductor sector received a huge bump as there’s a senate vote for a multi-billion chip bill to address the chip supply chain on Tuesday (07/18) and we are seeing a big run-up from that announcement last week. On the daily timeframe, so far we see a fake breakdown of the 155 level which was the neckline of the bearish head and shoulder pattern. If NVDA can hold above this 155, it can set up for that 50DMA (168.93) test in the short term.
$AMZN
Levels Above 114: 116, 118, 120, 124
Levels Below 112 (50DMA): 109, 104, 101
Options Recommendations
Above 114 level: 115C 07/22 (57.2K Volume @ 1.74)
Below 112 level: 110P 07/22 (14.4K Volume @ 1.15)
Analysis
On the daily timeframe, AMZN formed a higher low after bears failed to break that 101 level of strong support. Currently, AMZN is finding some support from the 50DMA (112.17) and some bullish flow into this week for the 114, 115, and 116 OTM call options expiring this week. Some caution is advised, as net premiums are on the decline.
***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***
- Unemployment Claims data on Thursday (07/21) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
- Multiple Fed speakers this week