07/13/2022 Watchlist Chart
Wednesday Watchlist – July 13th
On Tuesday, $SPY tested that double top (386-387 range We mentioned the day before) and rejected, continuing the bleed-off to test that 380-383 support range. If SPY can’t hold above this zone, the old 374-373 support zone remains below. All eyes are on June core CPI tomorrow: the market is expecting 8.8%. Algos continues to show bearish divergence, and net premiums have fallen further, last -$125.45M. These could be hedges or traders expecting this 380-383 level not to hold.
$AMD
Levels Above 76: 79, 81, 85, 88, 90 (50DMA)
Levels Below 74, 72, 70, 65
Options Recommendations
Above 79 or B/T 76 level: 78C 07/15 (13.5K Volume @ 1.18)
Below 76 level: 75P 07/15 (22.3K Volume @ 1.31)
Analysis
Like NVDA, AMD broke down the head and shoulder pattern at the neckline of 85 and is currently setting itself for a potential 72-level re-test if the market reacts negatively to Wednesday’s CPI data. The weekly also has an inside week like many other stocks, so CPI will determine how the market will move for the rest of the week. Net premiums remain down, last -$5.36M. A drop in the sector would also likely result in NVDA bleeding down to test the 140 area.
$HD
Levels Above 285: 289 (50DMA), 292, 300, 309, 315
Levels Below 289: 285, 281, 278, 274, 271, 264, 260
Options Recommendations
Above 289 or B/T 285 level: 290C 07/15 (770 Volume @ 1.95) or 300C 07/22 (206 Volume @ 1.19)
Below 285 or B/T 289 level: 280P 07/15 (300 Volume @ 2.25)
Analysis
HD was showing relative strength at the open but quickly lost all of its gains intraday. When strong stocks pre-market flip bearish intraday, it tells you weakness in the stock. On the daily timeframe, HD rejected the 292 daily resistance with the 50DMA (289.05) now acting as a dynamic resistance level as well. If HD is unable to reclaim above the 50DMA or 292, we can start to see a pullback down to 278 again. Flow is mixed, algo shows some bearish divergence, and net premiums remain down, last -$3.82M.
$TGT
Levels Above 144: 146, 150, 153, 156, 158
Levels Below 144: 141, 139, 137
Options Recommendations
Above 146 or B/T 144 level: 146C 07/15 (357 Volume @ 1.57) or 150C 07/22 (207 Volume @ 1.43)
Below 144 level: 140P 07/15 (587 Volume @ 0.80)
Analysis
Like HD, TGT was showing relative strength at open but quickly lost the majority of its gains intraday throughout the day. Flow into the 140P 7/29, along with put flow into IWM for the 7/15 and 8/19 expiration that came in on Tuesday ahead of CPI data pre-market. On the daily timeframe, TGT was trading in a bearish downward channel, TGT recently attempted to break out of that channel last Friday but currently is struggling to hold above that break out of 144 level. If CPI comes out more than expected, we can see a much larger drop in the overall market.
$GOOGL
Levels Above 2300: 2315, 2342, 2360, 2375
Levels Below 2280: 2265 (50DMA), 2259-2254, 2230, 2317, 2200, 2188
Options Recommendations
Above 2300 level: 2400C 07/15 (4.1K Volume @ 6.00)
Below 2380 level: 2200P 07/15 (2.4K Volume @ 11.50)
Analysis
Mixed flow heading into CPI data and GOOGL’s 20:1 stock split on Friday (07/15). This is key to watch as depending on how the market reacts to CPI data if we get a big drop but bounce at key levels. On the daily timeframe, GOOGL giving up 2300 which has acted as support for this the last week. GOOGL currently is still holding above the flag break out so this pullback is healthy as long as GOOGL doesn’t close below the 50DMA (2262.77) on the daily timeframe. The weekly is still developing an inside week as well, so lots of indecision. Net premiums remain up, last +$31.65M.
***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***
- Core CPI for June 2022 on Wednesday (07/13) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
- Producer Price Index for June 2022 on Thursday (07/14) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
- Unemployment Claims Data on Thursday (07/14) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
- OpEx on Friday (07/15)