05/26/2022 Watchlist Chart
Watchlist for Thursday, 05/25/2022
On Wednesday, $SPY bounced off the 392 support I’ve been mentioning and shot up to the same 397-400 resistance, closing +0.88%. Before the close, We mentioned some bearish divergence and a MOC imbalance of $1.6B to the sell-side. SPY dropped 1% into the close, futures are currently down 0.16%.
$$ES (Futures) – Pivot: 3976 | Levels Above: 3996/4010/4040 | Levels Below: 3969/3930
$MSFT – The stock traded up 1.12% during market hours but was down 0.31% after hours. On the 1hr timeframe, MSFT has been developing a bullish RSI divergence (where stock price makes a new low, but RSI forms a higher low), but continues to find rejection at the top range of the flag. On the daily timeframe, we also see the same pattern where MSFT forms 3 green candles but with low daily volume showing potential false break out of the flag. Despite the lack of volume, there was an increased flow into the 262.5C next week’s expiration being bought up for MSFT. Keep an eye on the 263 level, if MSFT can break above with volume, it can test 266 to 273 level resistance. We will consider puts if MSFT fails to hold above 260-261, as it can pull back down to 255 to 250 (strong support). Below that is 246-level support (LOD last Friday).
Contract Suggestion:
Above 263 level: 265C 05/27 (14.1K Volume @ 2.00)
Below 261 level: 257P 05/27 (4.8K Volume @ 1.61)
$TWTR – The stock traded up 3.91% during market hours and was up 5.62% after hours following Elon’s commitment to more cash on the deal. On the 1hr timeframe, TWTR has been developing a bullish RSI divergence (where stock price makes a new low, but RSI forms a higher low) but has yet to break out of the downtrend to flip bullish. On the contrary, there was a big bet for TWTR 30P 2023 expiration for the Elon/TWTR saga. Based on intraday, it short term is bullish, but flow shows a long term bearish trend. On the daily timeframe, it’s still in an overall downtrend with these daily pops being with low volume and short. Keep an eye on the 37 levels, if TWTR can break above with volume, it can test 39 (near 9DMA) to 40 level resistance. Above 40 levels, it can test 43 to 44 (near 50DMA) level resistance. We will consider puts if TWTR fails to hold above the 35 levels, as it can pull back down to 32 (strong support).
Contract Suggestion:
Above 37 level: 40C 06/03 (1.1K Volume @ 0.53)
Below 35 level: 33P 06/03 (3.9K Volume @ 0.43)
$AMD – The stock traded up 1.63% during market hours but was down 2.10% after hours. On the daily timeframe, AMD currently holding above the downtrend line after breaking out of it last week. This would usually be a great position for a long entry but there was an unusual amount of 75P 8/19 expiration being bought up Wednesday morning ahead of NVDA’s earnings report. Currently, AMD is down 2% after hours as a sympathy play. The weekly is still an inside week, so it’s hard to see a long-term bearish sign unless this trader is betting on QT which is set to start in June to pull the market down lower. On the 1hr timeframe, AMD also attempted to break out of that downtrend but currently finding resistance there. Keep an eye on the 94 levels, if AMD can break above with volume, it can test 97 to 100 level resistance. We will consider puts if AMD fails to hold above the 90 levels, as it can pull back down to 88 to 85 (strong support).
Contract Suggestion:
(Call/Put Ratio: 0.40)
Above 94 level: 95C 05/27 (36.4K Volume @ 1.40)
Below 90 level: 89P 05/27 (9.4K Volume @ 1.14)
***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***
- Unemployment Claims Data on Thursday (05/26) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
- Core PCE inflation for April 2022 on Friday (05/27) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST