05/18/2022 Watchlist Chart
Watchlist for Wednesday, 05/18/2022
On Tuesday, $SPY chopped and ranged as expected until Powell spoke, closing up 2.06%. We mentioned before the close that the MOC imbalance was $288M to the sell-side. Futures are currently down 0.23% after hours.
$ES (Futures) – Pivot: 4069 | Levels Above: 4095/4111 | Levels Below: 4040/4030/3994
$HD – The stock traded up 1.68% during market hours and was up 0.30% after hours. HD reported strong earnings (catching the eye of long-term investors) and gapped up at open but those gains quickly sold off. On the daily timeframe, HD attempted to break out of the falling wedge but was held down by the 50DMA (308.93) with volume. $LOWS is set to report this week, so HD price action may be influenced by how they report due to being in the same sector and a possible sympathy play. Keep an eye on the 300 level, if HD can hold above this level, it can test 304 to 309 (near 50DMA) level resistance. Above 309 level, it can test 313 to 317 level resistance. We will consider puts if HD fails to hold above the 300 level, as it can pull back down to 296 (9DMA) to 292 level support. Below that can test 285 if we get a sell-off.
(Call/Put Ratio: 0.71)
Above 304 or B/T 300 level: 305C 05/20 (6.7K Volume @ 2.90) or 310C 05/20 (5.8K Volume @ 1.50)
Below 300 level: 295P 05/20 (3.4K Volume @ 2.49)
$AMZN – The stock traded up 4.11% during market hours and was up 0.15% after hours. On the daily timeframe, AMZN closed a bullish pin-bar and managed to close above the 9DMA (2287) which may be bullish short term. Things to note: Daily volume is decreasing as the price is moving higher so it could possibly be a dead cat bounce. Also, there has been a $15M+ premium pumped into put contracts expiring over the next few months. Daily looks like a “V” shape recovery. The weekly timeframe RSI is still an oversold level, so we could see a 2400 test this week before a larger reaction there. Keep an eye on the 2330 or backtest 2300 level, as it can test 2370 (near 14DMA) to 2400 level resistance. Above 2400 level, it can test 2420 to 2464 to 2500 level resistance. We will consider puts if AMZN fails to hold above the 2300 level, as it can test 2260 (possible bounce zone here) to 2200 level support. Below that can drop down to 2180 to 2125 to 2100 level support.
Above 2330 or B/T 2300 level: 2400C 05/20 (13.1K Volume @ 9.65) or 2450C 05/20 (1.6K Volume @ 3.90)
Below 2300 level: 2150P 05/20 (2.7K Volume @ 5.55)
$IWM – IWM traded up 3.06% during market hours. Towards the open, there was a huge flow into the 172P June expiration with a huge premium from the morning gap up. It’s likely that this person is making a bet on quantitative tightening (QT) to happen soon according to the feds. On the daily timeframe, it was showing relative strength as it managed to close near the high of the day and closed a bullish pin bar off of the 180 level. The key thing to see on the daily timeframe is that IWM moves up from 170, and the daily volume is starting to taper off and moving below the normal daily volume. This is usually indicative of a dead cat bounce when the price is moving higher but volume is moving lower. Keep an eye on the 184 level or backtest 180 level, if IWM can break above it can test 187 to 191 level resistance. Above 191 level, it can test 196 to 200 (hard resistance). We will consider puts if IWM fails to hold above the 180 level, as it can pull back down to 175 to 173 level support. Below that can test 170 to 165 level support.
Above 184 or B/T 180 level: 185C 05/20 (7.8K Volume @ 1.48) or 187C 05/20 (4.9K Volume @ 0.82)
Below 180 level: 178P 05/20 (6.5K Volume @ 0.88) or 172P 06/17 (63.6K Volume @ 3.04)
***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***
- Unemployment claims data on Thursday (05/19) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
- OPEX on Friday (05/20)