05/04/2022 Watchlist Chart
Watchlist for Wednesday, 05/04/2022
On Tuesday, SPY rose 0.46% after bouncing off of the major 413s support in the morning.
$ES (Futures) – Pivot 4185 | Levels Above: 4196/4212/4240 | Levels Below: 4165/4157/4140
$ETSY – The stock traded up 3.56% during market hours and was up 0.77% after hours. ETSY is set to report earnings on Thursday (05/04) aftermarket closes and the weekly expiration is pricing in at 16 points moving with 238% IV. This means ETSY would need either a huge pop or drop to avoid an IV crush. ETSY may have a similar reaction to how AMZN did in their earnings report as their model is very similar to each other. The only notable weekly expiration would be that 94P weekly while the others are long-dated call options. On the 1hr timeframe, we continue to find rejection at the 103 level resistance while ETSY rides that 50DMA (98.85) as support. The weekly timeframe gives a more bullish outlook. Keep an eye on the 101 level, if ETSY can break above with volume, it can test 103 to 106 level resistance. Above 106 level, it can test 108 to 112 level resistance. We will consider puts if ETSY fails to hold above the 98 (50DMA), as it can pull back down to 96 to 90 level support.
Contract Suggestion:
Above 101 level: 107C 05/06 (256 Volume @ 5.50) OR 115C 05/13 (133 Volume @ 3.65)
Below 98 level: 90P 05/06 (675 Volume @ 4.00)
$AAPL – The stock traded up 0.96% during market hours and was up 0.15% after hours. On the daily timeframe, AAPL continues to trade wildly with these huge red candles and green candles alternating but that pin bar off the 153 level started to show some continuation in relative strength during Tuesday’s trading sessions. AAPL continues to trade within a larger flag overall but reclaiming that 200DMA (159.46) is a great step to test the 50DMA (165.48) again if we see a pop in tech after FOMC. Keep an eye on the 160 level, if AAPL can break above with volume, it can test 165 (near 50DMA) to 167 level resistance. We will consider puts if AAPL fails to hold above the 158 level, as it can pull back down to 153 (bounce level) to 150 level support.
Contract Suggestion:
Above 160 level: 162.5C 05/06 (43.5K Volume @ 1.22)
Below 158 level: 155P 05/06 (69.4K Volume @ 1.29)
$UPST – The stock traded up 2.22% during market hours and was up 0.40% after hours. On the daily timeframe, UPST is forming a rounded bottom off the 72 level support and started to see UPST holding above the 9DMA (80.52) which is bullish. If UPST can close above 82 on the weekly, it’s a potential signal of a reversal. Keep an eye on the 89 level or backtest 82 level, as it can test 92 to 100 level resistance. Above 100 level, it can test 105 (50DMA) to 114 level resistance (100DMA). We will consider puts if UPST fails to hold above the 82 level, as it can pullback down to 72 to 70 level support. Some notable flow into 90C 05/20 expiration
Contract Suggestion:
Above 89 or B/T 82 level: 90C 05/06 (3.1K Volume @ 2.40) or 100C 05/20 (889 Volume @ 7.50)
Below 82 level: 80P 05/06 (1.6K Volume @ 2.10)
***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***
- FOMC statement on Wednesday (05/04) at 11 am PST/2 pm EST with Jerome Powell speaking 30 minutes after
- Unemployment Claims Data on Thursday (05/05) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
- Non-farm payroll for April 2022 on Friday (05/06) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST