04/27/2022 Watchlist Chart
Watchlist for Wednesday 04/27/2022
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 dropped 2.90%, closing with a MOC imbalance of $405M to the sell-side. Futures are currently up about 1%.
$ES – Pivot 4196 | Levels above: 4212/4220/4240 | Levels below: 4172/4160/4140
$MSFT – The stock fell 3.74% during market hours but was up 4.51% after hours. MSFT popped off aftermarket from their earnings report. MSFT initially fell when they announced earnings, but MSFT guided for strong cloud growth into the next quarter which caused this pop. On the weekly expiration, they are pricing in a 19pt move in either direction, so if MSFT doesn’t move higher pre-market, there’s a high chance of IV crush at open. Based on the after-hours price, keep an eye on the 286 level or backtest 281 level, as it can test 290 to 293 (50DMA) level resistance. Above 293 level, it can test 296 to 300 level resistance. We will consider puts if MSFT fails to hold above the 281 level, as it can pull back down to 279 to 273 level support.
Contract Suggestion:
Above 286 or B/T 281 level: 290C 04/29 (14.4K Volume @2.39)
Below 281 level: 260P 04/29 (12.7K Volume @5.70) or 350P 04/29 (14.5K Volume @3.10)
$FB – The stock fell 3.23% during market hours and was down 2.38% after hours. FB reports earnings on Wednesday (04/27) aftermarket closes with the weekly expiration pricing in a 24-point move in either direction. The past 3 earnings have resulted in a drop, but the flow is currently mixed with a small cumulative net premium of +4.47M. On the daily timeframe, FB continues to show relative weakness as it continues to sell off with low volume dead cat bounces. Currently, the RSI is in the oversold zone, however, on the weekly timeframe, it formed a lower low so more downside is possible in May 2022. Keep an eye on the 182 level or backtest 175 level, as it can test 190 to 195 (9DMA) level resistance. Above 195 level, it can test 200 to 207 level resistance. We will consider puts if FB fails to hold above the 175 level, as it can pull back down to 168 to 160 level support. (Premiums are jacked on the weeklies).
Contract Suggestion:
Above 182 or B/T 175 level: 200C 04/29 (5.16 Volume @4.75)
Below 175 level: 160P 04/29 (13.5K Volume @ 4.10) or 150P 04/29 (12.7K Volume @ 2.78)
$TSLA – The stock fell 12.18% during market hours. TSLA was showing relative weakness compared to the overall market and, on a daily timeframe, closed a strong bearish candle with above average daily volume. TSLA’s price action is being slightly influenced by TWTR, as Musk will use his holdings in TSLA as a margin loan for the part of his TWTR acquisition. On the daily timeframe, TSLA is currently trading under the 50DMA and 200DMA which is a very bearish stance for the stock and was continuing to see lower as the RSI isn’t close to oversold just yet with the overall flow on the bearish side as well. Keep an eye on the 880 or backtest 860 level, as it can test 886 to 900 (near 200DMA) level resistance. Above 900 level, it can test 915 to 930 level resistance. We will consider puts if TSLA fails to hold above the 860 level as it can pull back down to 850 to 835 level support. Below that can drop down to 820 to 800 level support. Below that can drop down to 786 to 770 level support.
Contract Suggestion:
Above 880 or B/T 860 level: 930C 04/29 (14.5K Volume @9.30) or 950C 04/29 (40.3K Volume @ 5.80)
Below 860 level: 800P 04/29 (42.8K Volume @6.90)
***NEWS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK***
- Unemployment Claims Data on Thursday (04/28) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST
- Core PCE Price Index on Friday (04/29) at 5:30 am PST/8:30 am EST